Playoff Scenarios 2024

How each team can get position themselves the best going into the 4th ACL playoffs.

By: Ike Mendel

11/27/24

Playoff Scenarios

As we enter the final week of the season, many playoff slots are secured, but much of the seeding remains undecided. Let’s break down the scenarios from the top of the table to the bottom.

No. 1 Seed

Two teams remain in contention for the top seed in the ACL playoffs: the Marines and South Dakota.

• The Maryland Marines
  Dominating the season with their high-scoring prowess, the Marines hold the edge in the race for the No. 1 seed. At 10 wins, they’re the first—and potentially the only—team to reach double digits in the win column this season. Their path to securing the regular-season title is straightforward: defeat the Bighorns in Week 13. The playoff prophet gives the edge to the marines at ~53%

• South Dakota Bighorns
  The only other contender for the top seed, South Dakota clinched their division in Week 12 with a win over the Geoducks, marking their fourth consecutive division title. Their path to the top spot is similarly clear: beat the Marines in Week 13. A victory would give them 10 wins, key tiebreakers over Maryland, and the coveted No. 1 seed. The Bighorns are slight underdogs at ~47% to be the top seed.

Bye Weeks (No. 1 or No. 2 Seeds)

• Maryland Marines
  The Marines have already secured a first-round bye, regardless of Week 13 outcomes.
  
  

• SD Bighorns
  The simplest path for the Bighorns to clinch a bye is to defeat the Marines. Alternatively, they could secure the No. 2 seed if Hawaii loses in Week 13. The odds are in their favor, with the playoff model giving them a ~67% chance of earning a bye.
  
  

• Hawaii Hookies
  Hawaii’s path to a bye week requires both a win over Minnesota and a Marines victory over the Bighorns. However, their final matchup is no easy task; Minnesota needs the win to secure their division and a playoff spot. Hawaii’s chances of earning the bye are the highest of the underdogs but they hover at just ~33%, according to the playoff model.
  
  

Division Champions (No. 3 or No. 4 Seeds)

The Marines, Hawaii, and South Dakota are guaranteed top-four seeds, but the battle for the final division title—and the No. 4 seed—is intense.

• Minnesota Fighting Squirrels
  Despite a late-season slump, Minnesota can lock up their fourth division title and the No. 3 seed with a win over Hawaii in Week 13. However, a loss could open the door for Wisconsin to steal the division crown.The play off model projects that they have a ~80% of securing the division.
  
  

• Wisconsin 
  The dark horse in this race, Wisconsin has kept their playoff hopes alive with three consecutive wins. To win their first division title and secure the No. 4 seed, they must:
  
  

  1. Defeat Iowa, a team on the brink of an embarrassing 0-13 season. However, the Psychlones will be desperate to avoid becoming only the second winless team in ACL history.

  2. Outscore Minnesota by at least 7 points to win the tiebreaker.
     While the margin for error is razor-thin, Wisconsin still has a ~20% chance of pulling off this Cinderella story.

Wild Card (WC)

The  Washington Geoducks locked up the Wild Card weeks ago by reaching eight wins and mathematically eliminating the competition.

Super Wild Card (SWC)

This final playoff slot is technically available to any team capable of a massive Week 13 performance, but the most likely contenders are clear.

• Arizona Albatross
  At 5-7 with 1,633.65 total points, the Albatross are heavy favorites to claim the Super Wild Card. They hold a significant 91.95-point lead over their divisional rival, the California Pansies. With such a comfortable cushion, the Albatross are nearly assured a playoff berth barring an extraordinary effort from California. The playoff model gives Arizona a 92% chance of holding on.
  
  

• California Pansies
  Trailing Arizona by nearly 92 points, California’s path to the SWC is simple but daunting: outscore Arizona by the required margin in Week 13. While theoretically possible, the odds are stacked against them. The Playoff Prophet model projects that there is a slim 8% chance of this occurring.
  
  

For all other teams, the Super Wild Card is likely out of reach as the model as every other team’s chances at <1%. 

As the dust settles after Week 13, the playoff picture will finally take shape. Expect drama, surprises, and perhaps one last twist in this thrilling ACL season.