2023 Pre-Season Playoff Odds

Below are my predictions for the 2023 American Contract League campaign in order of percent chance of making the postseason. Projections are based on 5,000 simulations of the season and reflect the current team’s estimated points for each of their starters and select bench players from the sleeper platform. The model does not reflect possible in-season moves or trades but instead tries to capture each team's current situations. It is important to remember injuries and upsets will happen and scramble these numbers as the season progresses in what should be an interesting campaign from all teams competing. Floor is the lowest projected win total that appeared in >7.5% of simulations and Ceiling is the greatest win total that appeared in >7.5% of simulations.
 

1. Minnesota Fighting Squirrels (MN) - Great Lakes Division
   Odds: 78% to Make the playoffs and -285 to win the Pacific
   Floor: 6 Wins  - Ceiling:  11 Wins

MN's projected points, totaling 1744, indicate a solid season ahead.  While not the most competitive division in the league, this number reflects a well-rounded offense that can pose challenges to their opponents.  While not a juggernaut in points with a projected record of 8-5, This record signifies their ability to win in a weak division and solid starting players.  MN competes in the weaker Great Lakes Division, holding a projected division record of 3-1.  This success within their division is relatively easy; it boots their playoff probability to the highest in the league (78.0%).  MN is the top contender for postseason play.  Low chances for the WC and SWC spots indicate that winning their division is a must if they want to make another postseason playoff run, which they are known for doing in the past season.  If Minnesota drops many games in their division or loses a couple of starters to injury, expect their playoff chances to take a hit and leave the door open to the hungry Wisconsin and Iowa teams hoping to grab their first appearances of the postseason.

2.  Maryland Marines (MAR) - Atlantic Division
Odds: 76.7% to Make the playoffs and -135 to win the Atlantic
Floor: 7 wins - Ceiling: 12 Wins

The Maryland-based Marines (MAR) team is embarking on the ACL season as the team to beat.  The reigning championship squad is relatively unchanged, and the model reflects their success from last year.  MAR's projected points are the most in the league, standing at an impressive 1851.  This team's success is pivoting on reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes and TE star Travis Kelce.  With a projected record of 9-4, MAR is on track for a successful season.  They are well above a .500 record, showcasing their ability to secure wins consistently.  This impressive record demonstrates their competitiveness in a challenging NFL landscape.  Competing in the competitive Atlantic Division, MAR boasts a projected division record of 3-1.  This divisional success positions them as strong contenders within the division and underscores their ability to navigate tough matchups.  Winning against VFT will be easier than the challenging Virginia squad, however.  With a playoff probability of 76.7%, MAR is among the frontrunners for postseason play.  Its ability to combine offensive firepower with consistency sets MAR apart from the competition.  Their projected points indicate that they can compete with the best, and their impressive record and playoff probability support the notion that they are a team to be reckoned with.  As the season unfolds, we will undoubtedly be keeping a close eye on MAR, eager to see if they can maintain their offensive dominance and secure a spot in the playoffs.

3.  Arizona Albatross (AZA) - Pacific Division
Odds: 72.3% to Make the playoffs and +120 to win the Pacific
Floor: 6 wins - Ceiling: 12 Wins

Arizona Albatross (AZA) in the Pacific Division is generating significant buzz, largely thanks to their strategy of adding young, high-ceiling players to their roster through their many 1st round draft sections.  AZA's projected points at 1838 already showcase an impressive potential to have an incredible season.  What makes this even more exciting is that a significant portion of these points can be attributed to their young and promising offensive players.  With a projected record of 8-5, AZA is well on its way to improving its 6-7 record from the previous season.  What's striking about this projection is that it's being achieved with the contributions of these youthful talents, who quickly adapt to the rigors of the NFL.  Competing in the demanding Pacific Division, AZA is holding its ground with a projected division record of 2-2.  Their implied out-of-division record of 6-3 speaks volumes about their projected success outside of their division, which is crucial for any team hoping to make the playoffs.  Their chances of making the playoffs sit on the higher end at 72.3%, likely due to their floor possibly being the Super Wild Card based on point totals.  AZA is not only contending for a playoff spot but also emerging as one of the top teams in their division and the league.  AZA boasts one of the best chances at securing the no. 1.  seed at 18.3%, but they must do well against their two division rivals.  AZA's metrics underscore their status as a team to watch.  Their strategy sets them apart, adding young players with high ceilings who are making an immediate impact.  These young talents have injected excitement and promise into the team's performance, and they are well-positioned to make the playoffs and potentially make a deep run.  As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on AZA and its rising stars, eager to witness their continued growth and development.

4.  South Dakota (SD) - High Plains Division
Odds: 69.6% to Make the playoffs and -105 to win the Plains
Floor: 6 wins - Ceiling: 11 Wins

South Dakota (SD) is gearing up for what promises to be an exciting and competitive season.  Owner Ike Mendel is attempting to go for their 3rd consecutive division title, and our model favors him in the historically best division in the ACL.  SD's projected points, at 1786, indicate a team with promise.  An above-average point total suggests they have the firepower to make significant points and challenge their opponents.  With a record of 8-5, SD is projected to have a down year following their 10-3 and 11-2 seasons.  Last season, SD swept the Plains, but a 4-0 campaign previously does not reflect the current competitive nature of the High Plains Division.  SD boasts a projected division record of 3-1.  A high win total signifies that they are a real threat to take their division if they can overcome a rising Ohio and playoff-worthy Washington Squad.  It is not out of the question to upset the division and for SD to only win two division games this season.  With a playoff probability of 69.6%, SD is positioned as a top contender for postseason play.  This figure reflects their potential and indicates a strong chance of securing a playoff spot with continued solid performances.  Expect South Dakota to be a playoff berth contender by being competitive in out-of-division play with a handful of division wins. 

5.  Virginia (VIR) - Atlantic Division
Odds: 63.3% to Make the playoffs and +175 to win the Atlantic
Floor: 5 wins - Ceiling: 11 Wins

Virginia's projected points, at 1757, suggest a competitive roster that can compete with the majority of the league.  With a projected record of 8-5, VIR is on track to have another winning season.  Competing in the competitive Atlantic Division, VIR faces a projected division record of 2-2.  Virginia will face the biggest challenge in their two games against reigning champions Marines.  With a playoff probability of 63.3%, VIR should be a strong contender for postseason play.  This figure reflects their potential and suggests they have a good chance of securing their third playoff berth with continued solid performances.  VIR's projections metrics paint a promising picture.  They have a well-rounded roster and a solid probability of making the playoffs.  To capitalize on this potential, VIR must beat their lesser division rival, VFT, and be competitive against the giant MAR.  It will be crucial for VIR to split games with MAR and sweep VFT if they want to return to their 2021 campaign success with a divisional title. 

6.  California Pansies (CAP) - Pacific Division
Odds: 62.8% to Make the playoffs and +205 to win the Pacific
Floor: 4 wins - Ceiling: 11 Wins

Owner Reese Thompson opens the season with projected points 1767, indicating a well-rounded team capable of winning against any opponent.  With a projected record of 7-6, CAP is on track for a competitive season.  This record puts them in contention for a playoff spot, and with consistent performance, they can strengthen their position as the season unfolds.  Competing in the fiercely contested Pacific Division, CAP faces a projected division record of 2-2.   A .500 divisional record Signifies that they are evenly matched with divisional rivals and that divisional games will play a pivotal role in their season.  With a playoff probability of 62.8%, CAP is positioned as a strong contender for postseason play.  This figure reflects their potential and suggests they are in contention to secure a playoff berth with continued solid performances.  CAP's early-season metrics paint a promising picture.  They have a balanced offense, a competitive record, and a significant chance of making the playoffs.  CAP should be in the running for a Wild Card Berth if not their third-division title.

7.  Washington Geoducks (DUCK) - High Plains Division
Odds: 62.5% to Make the playoffs and +145 to win the Plains
Floor: 5 wins - Ceiling: 11 Wins

Only two seasons removed from their playoff run in 2021, Washington is in for another competitive season.  The Geoducks' projected points 1746 signify a team with a balanced attack.  While they may not be the highest-scoring team in the league, this number suggests that DUCK has the blow-up for more significant point totals.  A projected record of 7-6 reflects not this team being middle of the road but simply an improvement of the teams around them.  This record positions them well in the playoff race, and by maintaining consistent performance, they can solidify their standing as the season unfolds.  Competing in the challenging High Plains Division, DUCK faces a projected division record of 2-2.  Revealing that they have apparent parity with divisional rivals.  Performance in divisional games will be crucial in securing a playoff berth this season.  With a playoff probability of 62.5%, DUCK should be considered a strong contender for postseason play.  This figure underscores their potential and suggests they have a favorable chance of securing a playoff spot with continued solid showings.  They have a well-rounded offense, a competitive record, and a solid chance of making the playoffs.  To capitalize on this potential, DUCK should emphasize consistency, excel in divisional matchups, and remain adaptable throughout the season.  With determination and key victories, they are well-positioned to make a deep playoff run if they can secure one of the six coveted playoff positions.

8.  Hawaii Hookies (HI) - Pacific Division
Odds: 48% to Make the playoffs and +365 to win the Pacific
Floor: 4 wins - Ceiling: 10 Wins

HI's projected points, at 1690, reflect possibly the best defensive team in the league.  While not the highest-scoring team in the league, this number indicates that HI can put up points and challenge their opponents effectively.  With a projected record of 7-6, HI is set for a season of competitiveness.  While it's not a guaranteed playoff position, a winning record is within reach, and HI can build on this foundation to make a strong push for the postseason.  Competing in the competitive Pacific Division, Hawaii faces a projected division record of 2-2.  Suggesting they are evenly matched with divisional rivals, and divisional games will be crucial in determining their fate within the division.  Winning these matchups can significantly impact their playoff chances.  With a playoff probability of 48.0%, HI is positioned as a moderate contender for postseason play.  While it's a competitive figure, it also signifies room for improvement and growth throughout the season.  HI's early-season metrics indicate a team with potential.  They can challenge opponents, have a winning record in sight, and a competitive division to navigate.  To secure a playoff berth, HI should focus on consistency, capitalize on divisional matchups, and make necessary strategic adjustments.  With determination and key victories, they have a good chance of making a postseason run and exciting their fans. 

9.  Iowa State Psyclones (ISU) - Great Lakes Division
Odds: 18.6% to Make the playoffs and +595 to win the Lakes
Floor: 1 Wins - Ceiling: 7 Wins

ISU's projected points, at 1462, suggest that their offense may face some challenges in putting up high scores.  However, it's crucial to remember that the Great Lakes Division is very winnable, and we should expect to see changes in standings as the season progresses.  With a projected record of 4-9, ISU faces overcoming adversity to secure a winning season.  While this may seem daunting, the ACL is no stranger to surprises and upsets.  A few unexpected victories or a mid-season resurgence can completely alter the team's outlook.  ISU is competing in the Great Lakes Division and has a projected division record of 2-2.  Denoting that they have the potential to hold their ground against divisional rivals and remain competitive within their division.  Divisional games often play a pivotal role in a team's season.  Currently, ISU has a playoff probability of 18.6%.  While it may appear modest, it is likely due to their implied record of 2-7 against out-of-division matchups.  If they can push them out of the division record closer to .500, expect ISU to give MN a run for their first division title and, therefore, a playoff berth. 

10.  Ohio Good Sirs (SIR) - High Plains Division
Odds: 17.8% to Make the playoffs and +1100 to win the Plains
Floor: 1 Wins - Ceiling: 6 Wins

As the NFL season kicks off, the SIR (SIR) team in the staunch Plains Division faces some early-season challenges.  The metrics indicate they may have a tough road ahead.  SIR's projected points of 1507 suggest an offense with room for improvement.  While not among the highest-scoring teams in the league, SIR may be sleeping on a big breakout year.  A projected record of 4-9 indicates a season of growth for SIR.  However, it's important not to underestimate the potential for surprises in the ACL.  A few unexpected victories can change the team's trajectory and boost their confidence, especially with the young core Owner Wilson has built over the season's trades and drafting.  SIR faces a projected division record of 1-3 within the highly competitive High Plains Division.  Highlighting the tough competition within their division also means they have multiple opportunities to make a statement against division rivals.  Winning these divisional matchups can be a significant turning point for the season.  With a lower playoff probability of 17.8%, SIR is currently considered an underdog in the race for postseason play, likely due to their division's two other vital members.  However, this team could significantly throw the division for a loop if they can get a handful of upsets throughout the season.

11.  Wisconsin Gamecocks (WISC) - Great Lakes Division
Odds: 15.3% to Make the playoffs and +750 to win the Lakes
Floor: 1 Wins - Ceiling: 5 Wins

As the ACL season kicks off, the Wisconsin (WISC) team in the Great Lakes Division is gearing up for what appears to be a challenging season based on early-season metrics.  While their current projections may not be favorable, there are always opportunities for growth and improvement in the dynamic world of professional football.  WISC's projected points 1429 suggest that their offense may face some struggles in putting up big numbers.  However, it's essential to remember that early-season projections can be deceiving.  Teams often evolve and adapt their strategies as they gain experience throughout the season.  With a projected record of 4-9, WISC faces an uphill battle in securing a winning season.  A losing record may seem challenging; however, a few unexpected victories or mid-season acquisitions could change the entire outlook for the team.  Competing in the weak Great Lakes Division, WISC's projected division record of 1-3 indicates the challenges facing owner Noah.  However, divisional matchups also offer significant opportunities for gaining ground and asserting dominance within the division ripe for the taking.  WISC has a playoff probability of 15.3%, which might appear low.  Nevertheless, it's essential to recognize that ACL seasons are lengthy, and momentum can shift quickly.  WISC must focus on finding breakout players, refining their strategies, and capitalizing on divisional games to improve their playoff chances. 

12.  Vermont Football Team (VFT) - Atlantic Division
Odds: 14.9% to Make the playoffs and +1460 to win the Atlantic
Floor: 1 Wins - Ceiling: 5 Wins

 The Vermont Football Team (VFT) team in the Atlantic Division faces some early challenges.  The metrics paint a picture of a team that, while struggling, may still have opportunities for growth and improvement as the season progresses.  VFT's projected points, at 1492, indicate room for improvement.  While not among the highest-scoring teams in the league, it's essential to remember that a season is a marathon, not a sprint.  An offensive adjustment or an unexpected breakout player could change the team's trajectory.  A projected record of 4-9 suggests a challenging season ahead.  However, it's crucial to appreciate the potential for upsets and turnarounds in the ACL.  One or two unexpected victories can shift the momentum and boost the team's confidence.  Within the highly competitive Atlantic Division, VFT faces a projected division record of 1-3.   Winning these divisional matchups can be a turning point for the season for VFT.  With a playoff probability of 14.9%, VFT should be considered an underdog in the race for postseason play.  However, the ACL is notorious for surprises.  To increase their chances, VFT must focus on consistency, making the most of divisional matchups, and making strategic adjustments as the season progresses.