The Push - 2023

With Week 9 now behind us, all eyes are firmly fixed on the looming playoff races. Out of the twelve participating teams, ten have a shot at postseason glory, though the degree of their prospects varies. Over the next four weeks, teams will engage in their last two divisional matchups, games that hold significant weight in determining their playoff fate.

The unique format of the ACL league ensures that the playoff push remains riveting, with no team ever truly eliminated from the race to the championship. The addition of the Super Wild Card Playoff slot introduces both a safety net for the league's giants and a "Hail Mary" chance for those on the brink of elimination from their divisions or the traditional wild card slot. Over the last two seasons, the benchmark for the SWC has been set high, with both teams exceeding 1800 points in their respective seasons. Virginia tallied 1853.55 points in 2022, while Maryland reached 1890.9 points in 2021. This year, only a handful of teams are projected to achieve such heights, yet they all currently hold traditional playoff seeds, leaving the SWC wide open for mid-tier and lower-ranked teams.

In the following segments, I will examine the playoff prospects of our twelve teams and pinpoint a pivotal game that each must secure in the upcoming four weeks.

No. 1 Maryland (8-1)

(99.1% chance to make playoffs)

• The Marines are off to their best regular season ever, 8 and 1 getting it done. Their sole loss is to the Virginia Heifers, who may be the last thing standing in the way of Maryland’s 1st seed aspirations. Maryland’s accent to the postseason seems inevitable barring a complete and total collapse. Maximizing postseason advantages that come with being a higher seed should be Owner Josh Halverson’s primary focus in the final four weeks. 

• Must Win game: Week 13 vs Virginia Heifers

  • If both teams maintain their pace for the season by winning out the remainder of their schedules, week 13 would set up a winner take all matchup. The winner of that matchup would be the no. 1 seed, and could send Maryland plummeting to the less advantageous wild card spot.

No. 2 South Dakota (6-3) 

(97.1% Chance to make playoffs)

• The Bighorns are 2 games back from the Maryland Marines in the quest for the number 1 seed in the playoffs. However, with both teams in their division nipping at their heels with 5 wins a piece, South Dakota can’t afford any more unlucky losses to their record. After back to back high scoring losses SD should be feeling good about their playoff odds considering they lead the league in PF by about 130 points. The primary focus for the Bighorns should be locking up their division in the final weeks of their schedule. 

• Must win Game: Week 10 Vs AZA

  • A loss to AZA would do two things to SD, firstly they would drop out of Bye week in the playoffs and push AZA up into the 2nd seed. Secondly it would cut their lead in the division from one game to zero games. In the division, widening the door for DUCK or SIR to win the division in the highly leveraged divisional games in week 11 and 12 for SD.

No. 3 Minnesota (5-4) 

(87.8% Chance to make the playoffs)

• The schedule for Minnesota is the most crucial out of any remaining schedule in the league, for a couple of reasons. Minnesota has only played 1 divisional match this entire season. They have yet to face 4-5 ISU in any contest. If Minnesota would have played the weaker ISU earlier in the season and beat them their chance to make the playoffs could very well be higher. Minnesota’s chances to make the playoffs are quite high for a team that is 5-4 which is a direct reflection of who is in their division. Still, taking care of business against divisional opponents will be paramount for Minnesota.

• Must win Game: Week 10 vs ISU

  • ISU is the only team in the league that has real leverage to push Minnesota out the playoffs. One loss to ISU could open up the door to miss the playoffs butTwo losses to ISU could be a dagger to Minnesota’s playoff shots. Take care of business in week 10 and Minnesota will have the advantage.

No. 4 Arizona (5-4) 

(71.4% chance to make the playoffs)

• The Pacific division is wide open for the taking. Arizona is only 1 game ahead of CAP and 2 ahead of Hawaii. The bad news for Arizona is that they already have 1 loss CAP from week 4 but the entire division is 1-1 in the inter divisional record. Cleaning up and taking home wins against HI and CAP will be crucial to winning the division for the first time as a franchise. They have the advantage and control their own destiny; they just can’t falter and let up games down the stretch which would allow California or Hawaii to gain ground. Arizona currently sits as the favorite to win the Pacific taking home the division in 61.4% of simulations. 

• Must win Game: Week 12 vs California

• A win here would push the Albatross solidly into the driver's seat of the division while a loss could open the door for any other divisional opponent to secure the division. The actual weight of this game does however come down to the weeks that lead up to it.

WC - Virginia (7-2) 

(94.6% Chance to make the playoffs)

How can a team with 7 wins in 9 weeks be the Wild card in the ACL playoffs? Having their neighboring Division rival be 8-1 is how. Despite being a game back in the standings from the dominant Marines there is hope for VIrginia to win the division for the 2nd time in its history. The Heifers control their own destiny to the first seed in the playoffs. Match wins against Maryland going down the stretch would set up an exciting week 13. 

Must win Game: Week 13 vs MAR

Going into the final four weeks Virginia and Maryland both hold advantages over each other. Maryland has more wins but Virgiinina has a win against Maryland. Meaning week 13 could decide the 1st seed in the playoffs and the division.

SWC - Washington (5-4)

(54.4% chance to make the playoffs)

• Don’t count out the Geoducks, in what is shaping up to be a competitive high Plains race, The Geoducks are not to be messed with. 1 win out of 1st place in the division the path to the playoffs is not sequestered to their current position in the Super Wild card. However this is no room to slip up on their way there. The Ducks must win against SD and secure a victory over Ohio to be 3-1 in the division. The Geoducks win the Division in 19.2% of all simulations which is not a small change by any means. 

• Must Win Game: Week 11 vs SD

• A loss to SD could cement Washington into the SWC race but a win extends the window of possibility for the Geoducks to beat the odds and win the division. 

Lottery Team: California (5-4) 

(41.6% Chance to make the playoffs)

• California is not too far out of the SWC spot, only a meager 40 points back from Washington, it would not be fair to assume hope is lost for the Pansies. Reese will need to win games against divisional opponents to place themselves in contention for the Pacific. The good news is that they have one win over Arizona from week 4. So if they beat Arizona in week 12 they would hold significant leverage over the Albatross. California should be worried about taking care of business against Hawaii first. 

• Must win Game: Week 12 vs AZA

  • This is the most important game left on CAP’s schedule, getting the win would pull himself back into the divisional lead. This game is the bottleneck to California controlling their own destiny, dropping this game releases control of the division to Arizona.

Lottery Team: Iowa (4-5) 

(25.2% chance to make the playoffs)

• Iowa may be the luckiest team in the whole league. With less than 1000 points on the season it is incredible to have 4 wins. To put this in perspective, the other 2 teams that have less than 1000 on the season are 2-7 and 0-9. The odds are higher for Iowas however due to their unique remaining schedule. They have to play Minnesota two times in the last four weeks. Hypothetically they could swing a couple wins over Minnesota to grab the division. Unlikely considering that Minnesota is getting hot to end the season but still possible.

• Must win games: Week 10 vs Minnesota

• Getting a win over Minnesota early will put Iowa into the driver's seat for the division and could set up a week 13 championship between the two Great Lakes teams. 

Lottery Team: Hawaii (3-6) 

(12.2% Chance to make the playoffs) 

• Hawaii’s season has definitely been unerwelfing. A divisional win does give them hope to secure a playoff spot despite it being slim. The Hookies are helped by parity within the division, each team is 1-1 in the division and it is very clear possibility that a team could be 3-1 at the end of the 4 weeks, which would be enough to win any tiebreakers. Why can’t that team be Hawaii?

• Must win Game: Week 11 vs CAP

  • If Hawaii doesn’t win this game, they might as well pack it in for the season. The best they could do from then on is score as many points as possible to get that SWC. 

Ohio (5-4)

 (15.6% Chance to make the playoffs)

• Ohio was down bad through the first 4 weeks of the season. They were 1-4 and on the verge of calling it a day. However since then they have ripped off 4 straight victories and propelled themselves back into the divisional conversation. Ohio does not control its own destiny and will need some help to get themselves into the playoffs. 0-2 in the division they will need to win both games remaining against SD and Washington to negate head to head tiebreakers. The team is hot so who’s to say it can’t be done. Unfortunately in the final four weeks the Jolly Good Sirs have to face the 8-1 Marines, the 7-2 Heifers, the 6-3 Bighorns and the 5-4 Geoducks, there are no more easy games left for Ohio to bank on. 

• Must win Game: Week 10 vs Virginia

  • I would say that a divisional matchup would be more important for this team, however, they are so far back in the tiebreakers every week it seems to be a must win for them. If Ohio can stay hot and take down the 7-2 team or steal another win against the Maryland Marines they have a shot at the division. They just have to make it to the last 2 weeks on pace with SD and DUCK first. 

Lottery Team: Vermont 2-7 

(1.1% Chance to make the playoffs)

• In week 8 the football team exploded to beat the bighorns. A huge win and added a ton of points to their resume. Unfortunately there is no possible scenario that allows them to win any other playoff spot except for the SWC. There is no must win game for Vermont from here on out, they are in a horse race now which unfortunately they probably won’t win. Vermont is on pace right now for a 1400 pt season. That won’t cut it to secure the SWC. To make it to the 1800 pt mark needed to grab that SWC in the past they will need to average 217 pts a week from here on out. Which would be miraculous considering there have only been 3 weeks ever where a team scored above 200 points. I wouldn't put my money on the VFT making the playoffs. I think the 1.1% chance is largely from a unrealistic possibility of a collapse of the midlevel franchises. 

 Lottery Team: Wisconsin (0-9) 

 (<1% Chance to make the playoffs) 

• I could just rewrite the paragraph for Vermont because they are in very similar boats. Wisconsin can’t make the playoffs through the 5 traditional spots. It's just not mathematically possible. On top of that they would need to average around 253 points a game to make it to the 1800 projected for the SWC team. Which would be the best weekly total for a team… 4 times in a row. I know it's not technically true but I think we can all agree that the Gamecocks are done for the season.