The Push - 2025

Breaking down each team's chances at the post season going into week 11

By: Ike Mendel

11/13/205 at 10:00 PM

Welcome to the Push, where the ACL's postseason picture is finally coming into focus with just three weeks left in the regular season. Seven teams sit at 6+ wins,  with 3 more are within striking distance, and the race for the top-4 seeds (and the Confrence titles) are tighter than ever. The Coastal looks loaded, the Central is a bloodbath, and the SWC remains anyone's guess. Here's what the Playoff Prophet view's as the key story lines.

I'll likely do another one of these as we get closer but slim it down  as teams solidify their seeding. 

no 1. California 8-2 (3-1) - 99%

The Pansies are pretty much set to make the postseason. They control their own destiny for the regular-season title, but they could fall as far down the seed if they're not careful. They have two tough matchups coming up, Vermont in Week 10 and South Dakota in Week 11, so it's crucial they keep winning to hold Arizona at bay. Luckily, they hold the tiebreaker advantage, but I know Anton is licking his chops thinking about that bye week. California is virtually a lock for the postseason; barring a total and complete collapse (or interference from the Commissioner), they'll make it. Luckily, they hold the tiebreaker advantage, but I know Anton is licking his chops thinking about that bye week. California is virtually a lock for the postseason; barring a total and complete collapse, they'll make it. It just a of what seed they will have on their quest for their 1st title. 

no 2. Iowa 6-4 (4-2) - 25%

Iowa's run has been historic. After an 0-13 season last year, they won their first five straight. They knocked off several early conference rivals, which gives them a big edge in tiebreakers. But they've dropped key matchups recently to Washington and Michigan—teams that are now breathing down their necks in the Central.

They also face arguably the toughest remaining schedule in the ACL: Texas (7-3), Vermont (7-3), and Arizona (8-2). A brutal stretch that feels like playoff games. I don’t see any easy wins left; in fact, they might not win another game this season. That said, they still control their destiny for a top-4 seed. They just need to finish with the same or better record than South Dakota. The Bighorns can’t beat them in conference record, so matching SD’s record is enough. Sounds simple, right? 

no 3. Arizona 8-2 (3-2) - 99%

Arizona doesn’t control their own destiny for the 1-seed, but it sure feels like they’ve got a real shot. Here’s how it likely plays out: someone—anyone—needs to beat California. The Pansies currently hold the edge in conference record and the head-to-head, so they’d have to open the door for Arizona to claim the top spot. At 8 wins, Arizona is nearly a lock with at least one more victory. In ACL history, no 9-win team has ever missed the postseason. An 8-win team slipping out isn’t unheard of, though. That said, their scoring pace is at historic levels, especially in this 14-team era. I don’t see a scenario where Arizona falls through the cracks and misses the post season entirely. In fact I’d be surprised by any scenario where they are not top 4. 

no 4. Michigan 6-4 (3-1) - 77%

It helps that the Central is slightly weaker. Michigan has only 1,070 points on the season, which pales in comparison to their Coastal counterparts and even the division’s third-ranked team, South Dakota. However Michigan does control their own path to the playoffs as an automatic qualifier. Their chances drop sharply if they can’t secure a top-4 seed—Vermont and Texas are a game ahead and hold head-to-head tiebreakers. That means without the auto-bid, they’d need both to drop at least two games to give Micghian a Wild Card. To thread that needle, Michigan would essentially have to win the Central outright on their own merit. To stay in the race, they need to fend off a solid Washington team and keep pace with Iowa and South Dakota. If they do, they’ve got a great shot at the whole division: they’ll need to finish with at least 4 conference wins—tying Iowa as things stand, matching South Dakota’s best possible conference record and just making sure they don’t let Washington back into the race. Here’s the bottom line: Michigan controls their destiny for the 2-seed. They just have to keep winning.

No 5. Vermont 7-3(3-1) - 98%

Vermont’s team is scary good, the best they’ve ever been, no question. It’s the payoff from steady, smart moves over the past couple of seasons. I really hope it lands them their first playoff appearance. Getting in is almost a lock, but winning the Coastal isn’t out of reach, they face division leader California head-on. Beat them, and Vermont’s on a clear path to a top-4 or even 1 seed. Ideally, they grab two conference wins to reclaim tiebreakers over Arizona moving to 5-1 in the conference, Arizona has the head-to-head edge so they’ll likely need 5 wins to take the conference and Arizona to drop a game.  Either way, Vermont has enough points to feel solid about the SWC as a backup option.

No 6. Texas 7-3 (3-2) - 90%

Texas has had a phenomenal start to their inaugural season, racking up 7 wins so far. Winning the Coastal might be just out of reach, but it’s still hypothetically possible (~3% odds). They’d need to beat Vermont in Week 13 to hit 4 conference wins, Arizona would have to drop their final conference matchup, and California would need to lose both of theirs. All while Texas matches or beats them in overall W-L record over the final three weeks. Rather unlikely. Their wild card odds, though? Very solid. The good news is that if anyone from the Central makes a push, they’d likely just snag the conference title instead of stealing Texas’s WC spot. What makes it tricky is if South Dakota finishes third in the Central with the same win total as Texas, especially if Texas loses to Vermont in Week 13. That could spark some chaos, but I figure Texas will have their postseason clinched before that door even cracks open.

no 7. South Dakota 6-4(2-2) - 98%

It’s odd: a team sitting at 98% odds for the postseason while holding the current SWC lead, yet the SWC itself isn’t their most likely path. South Dakota doesn’t control their own destiny for the playoffs. However, their points for the season are a key reason those odds remain so strong. In ~10% of simulations, they snag the SWC after being outpaced in the Central. There’s still plenty of uncertainty, with two conference games left on their schedule, and they’re far from eliminated in the wild card race (especially holding tiebreakers over both Vermont and Texas). Their path to the playoffs is open ended but straightforward: win as many of their final three games as possible and keep an eye on the other matchups. It’s unlikely all three other Central Contenders will rack up enough wins to lock SD into the SWC—or, God forbid, the lottery. But if this season has been any indication, anything is possible. 

no 8. Washington 5-5(3-1) - 36%

There’s room for hope with Washington. Sitting at .500 feels like a solid spot this late in the season and it would be, if not for those two 7-3 teams leaving, making them two games out of  a wild card spot. A WC berth is possible, but it’d take a perfect storm; it only shakes out in about 3% of simulations. That’s probably because they’ve dropped games to both Vermont and Texas, meaning they’d need to catch up by a game (or more) just to leapfrog either one. There’s probably a stronger shot at clawing back into the Central race for the Geoducks. They’ve got some crucial matchups to close out the year—a win over Michigan could slide them right back into the driver’s seat, especially if paired with an Iowa loss. In fact, if that happens, all they’d need from there is to match South Dakota’s result in Week 12 and then beat the Bighorns in their finale. Hitting 5 conference wins would be a tiebreaker bonanza; mathematically, if they top Michigan, they’d be the only team to pull it off. Regardless, Washington will play a pivotal role in deciding the Central crown and who gets shut out entirely. Plus, they could make a late push for the SWC; they’re within striking distance.

No 9. Ohio 4-6(2-2) - <1%

It hasn’t been a great season for Ohio, but the dream’s still alive. At 4-6, it’s not as dire as it looks. A winning record is still in play if they win out, and they’ll likely need to make the postseason anyway. I don’t love the idea of a Central team sneaking in at 7-6, but it’s at least possible at this stage. There’s a bit more wiggle room in how they pull it off. To get there, they’ll probably have to beat Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Two of those feel winnable, while Arizona looks unstoppable right now. If they hit 7-6 (4-2 in conference), they’d need two of the three, South Dakota, Iowa, or Michigan, to lose out, clearing the path as a Central automatic qualifier. There are some wilder paths, too, but I won’t dwell on them as any of these combo shakes out in just ~1% of simulations. What about the SWC? Good luck there. If not for their win total, Ohio would be sunk with the bottom five squads. They just haven’t racked up enough points this season.

No. 10 Virginia 4-6(2-2) - 70%

To snag a top-6 seed, Virginia needs everything to break right. First, they’ve got to win out which, honestly, feels like the most achievable piece of the puzzle. Get past Arizona, and and they’ve got a solid shot at controlling what they can, since Oklahoma and Minnesota have nothing left to play for this late. Where it gets dicey: Texas must drop all three of their final games against Iowa, Wisconsin, and Vermont. Any one of those losses is plausible, but I’d peg it as more likely that Texas finishes 2-1 down the stretch. Getting all six games to align (three for Virginia, three against Texas) is a long shot which only occurs in under 1% in simulations. Here’s the silver lining, though: The Playoff Prophet gives them a 76% shot at locking the 7-seed via points for. There’s still real hope.

Remaining Squads:

These Four teams all have been eliminated mathematically from seeds 1-6. No team is ever truly eliminated from the SWC however with that being said all four would need historic turnouts, or out right multiple all time weekly performances to even get close at getting the 7 seed.  

no. 11 Oklahoma 3-7(1-3) <1%

no. 12 Maryland Marines 3%

no 13. Wisconsin 2-8(1-3) 2%

no 14. Minnesota 1-9 (0-4) <1%

There is could be errors in my math, senariors or otherwise so don't be mad at me if I missed a away for you to get into the a certain seeding.