The Push - 2025 pt. 2

 Part two of Breaking down each team's chances at the post season

By: Ike Mendel

11/20/205 at 4:00 PM

With just two weeks left in the ACL regular season, the playoff picture has crystallized into a glorious mess of tiebreaker chaos, head-to-head heartbreak, and a handful of teams stubbornly refusing to act like their records say they should. Arizona sits alone in the penthouse, riding an eight-game heater and flirting with the kind of season that makes you wonder if the rest of the league is even playing the same sport. Behind them, five teams are separated by a single game, all clinging to 90+% playoff odds while simultaneously eyeing the same conference crowns and the lone first-round bye. In the Central especially, three squads are deadlocked at the top, yet none can clinch anything this week, setting up a finale that feels less like football and more like a bar fight. Buckle up: these last fourteen days will decide who gets to dream about a championship and who gets to spend the offseason explaining how they were “clearly the better team” despite missing the cut.

No 1. Arizona - 9-4(4-2) - 99.3% chance at the playoffs per the playoff prophet

Arizona extended their win streak to 8 games. An impressive feat that puts them atop the standings and, frankly, gives them real chances to win the whole ACL. I'm not worried about how they miss the playoffs as it would be a collapse of epic proportions. The Playoff Prophet puts their chances of getting the only bye in the postseason at a field leading 54%, and honestly it feels like it should be higher with who they have left to play in the final two weeks.

AZA Wins the Conference (and Likely the 1 seed) by:

• Arizona wins out - 11-2 (4-2)

Or

• Arizona Splits - 10-3 (4-2)

• California splits - 9-4 (3-3) or (4-2)

• Vermont splits - 9-4 (4-2) or (5-1)

Or 

• Arizona Loses out - 9-4(4-2)

• California losses out - 8-5 (3-3)

• Vermont splits while losing to Texas 9-4 (4-2) or losses out 8-5 (4-2)

Or

• Arizona Splits - 10-3 (4-2)

• California splits - 9-4 (3-3) or (4-2)

• Vermont splits - 9-4 (4-2) or (5-1)

No. 2 Michigan Mitten Crushers 7-4 (4-1) - 93.3%

The road is wide open for the Crushers to punch their ticket to the postseason. Despite a 3-way tie atop the Central, they control their own destiny for the conference title and their first playoff berth. The playoff prophet flipped this last week and now has them as the favorite to do so at 48%. Eyes are on Iowa as the luckiest team of the year, but Michigan has had a bit of luck themselves. They have fewer Points For this season than the 2-9 Wisconsin Gamecocks, who, to their credit, have actually underperformed their win percentage this year. Nonetheless, Michigan’s early-season success has now earned them the chance to secure their first conference title, let alone their first playoff berth. Michigan cannot clinch the conference this week even with an Iowa and South Dakota loss, so here is a 2-week view of how they win the Central. I wouldn’t count on a wild card for Michigan; the tiebreakers against the Coastal squads appear to be rather thin.

Michigan wins the Central by:

•  Michigan wins out

Or

• Michigan splits - 8-5 (4-2) or (5-1)

• SD splits- 8-5 (3-3) or (4-2)

• Iowa splits 8-5(4-2)

Or

• Michigan losses out - 7-4(4-2)

• SD losses out - 7-4 (3-3)

• Iowa losses out 7-4 (4-2)

No. 3 Vermont Football Team -  8-3(4-1) - 98.7%

Vermont clinched their first winning season in the ACL and has shown themselves as a team that doesn’t just want to show up to the dance; they want to make some noise. They control their own destiny for the playoffs and show no signs of slowing down. Vermont’s chances at the conference are slim a mere 11% but as we know anything is possible in the ACL.

Vermont wins the Coastal by:

• Vermont wins out - 10-3 (5-1) - This alone clinches a AQ through at least a 2nd place in the coastal

• Arizona splits 10-3 (4-2)

Vermont can Clinch a AQ this week by:

• Vermont defeating Iowa 9-3 (4-1)

• California is defeated by S. Dakota

• Texas is defeated by Wisconsin

No. 4 Iowa 7-4(4-2) - 48.7%

The luckiest team in the league at this moment finds themselves in a promising position. However, they will have to face two playoff-hopeful teams down the stretch in Vermont 8-3 and Arizona 9-2, both of whom are averaging a full 35+ points more per week than Iowa has all season. It will be rough and they “should” lose. But I’ve been saying that for weeks and I keep being proven wrong. Yet the model has them as the lowest odds of any of the current playoff teams. 

Iowa can Clinch a AQ this week by:

• Iowa Defeats Vermont

• S. Dakota is defeated by California

No. 5 California 8-3(4-2) - 97.3%

The door is not closed for California to win the conference. Whether California ends up with an AQ or falls to a wild-card spot or worse will come down to this week’s matchup against South Dakota and a conference game against Maryland (who has little to play for). Beating the Bighorns won’t quite be enough to secure themselves post season, as there is a scenario in which Vermont could keep winning and Texas defeats Wisconsin, leading to a sprawling landscape of tiebreakers where it’s difficult to predict who ends up where. However, a win this week does put them in the tiebreaker scenario, which is as close to clinching as one can get without actually making it impossible to be eliminated.

California can Clinch a WC this week by:

• California Defeats South Dakota

• Texas is defeated by Wisconsin

No. 6 South Dakota 7-4(4-2) - 98%

South Dakota is in a weird spot, last week they were favored to win the conference and now they've slipped to the second highest odds. Currently they are tied for the conference lead while still have one game to go in their conference schedule which is pretty much irrelevant since both Michigan and Iowa hold tiebreakers over them via head-to-head results. If you are hoping for a South Dakota Central title it’s going to take Iowa and Michigan slipping up. 

How South Dakota could end up as the Central Champion:

• S. Dakota wins out improving to 9-4(4-2)

• Michigan loses 1 of 2 falling to 8-5(4-2) or 8-5(5-1)

• Iowa loses 1 of 2 falling to 8-5(4-2)

Or

• S. Dakota splits improving to 8-5 (4-2) or 8-5(3-3)

• Michigan losses out falls to 7-6(4-2)

• Iowa losses out falls to 7-6(4-2)

No. 8 Texas 7-4(3-2) - 64.7%

The most hopeful thing Texas has for making noise right now is defeating Vermont in Week 13. Doing that would shake up the entire Coastal conference standings and provide some key drama. But first they have to win in Week 12 and keep hope alive. Texas can’t clinch or be eliminated in Week 12, but if they lose, the pressure will be on against Vermont to not let the season slip away.

Texas gets back to controlling their own destiny by:

• Texas defeats Wisconsin

• South Dakota is Defeated by California

Or

• Texas defeats Wisconsin

•  Iowa is defeated by Vermont

  • And California is defeated by South Dakota

Or

• Texas defeats Wisconsin

•  Michigan is defeated by Oklahoma

  • And California is defeated by South Dakota

No. 9 Washington 5-6(3-2) - 10.3%

Washington is on the brink of elimination if they lose it. So I’ll keep it short since the path is fairly straight forward for them to get into the post season. 

To avoid elimination this week and set up the best chance at the WC or AQ the most realistic route is: 

• Washington must defeat Maryland and beat SD in 7-6 (4-2)

• SD must lose to California and to Washington 7-6(3-3)

• Iowa Loses to Vermont and to Arizona. 7-6 (4-2)

All other teams are eliminated from the top 6 seeds:

Below is a chart that shows the SWC race. From left to right are teams sorted by current Points For totals of the season, along with the points likely needed to secure the SWC if a team falls out of the top 6 (or is already eliminated). It does not account for every possible scenario, but it gives a clear idea of what each team would need to do to reach the playoffs through this path. For example, if Arizona wants to get in as the highest-scoring team of the season, they probably only need to score around 24 points each week, whereas Wisconsin would need to put up all-time top-ten scoring weeks to even have a chance of winning it. For reference, the 10th-highest weekly score in league history is 194.6, set in 2022 by South Dakota.